UK Elections and Gaza War
By Dr Ashraf Chohan
The UK’s political scenario as of late June 2024 is highly dynamic, primarily influenced by the upcoming general election on July 4. The Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, is currently predicted by polls to win a significant majority, with estimates suggesting they could secure between 338 to 510 seats, compared to the Conservatives’ predicted range of 65 to 170 seats
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces a tough battle, with polls indicating a substantial lead for Labour. The Conservative Party has been struggling, with recent surveys showing their support around 19-23%, significantly behind Labour’s 39-44%. The Liberal Democrats and Reform UK are also seeing notable support, potentially winning more seats than in previous elections.
In terms of policy focus, various organizations and advocacy groups have published their manifestos, hoping to influence the incoming government. Key issues include climate action, digital rights, and support for the self-employed and property sectors
Overall, the political landscape is marked by Labour’s strong lead and a fragmented opposition, setting the stage for a potentially transformative election.
Rishi Sunak’s leadership approval ratings have hit an all-time low as of late June 2024. Current polling data indicates a significant decline in his popularity, with his net approval rating dropping to -40%, the lowest since he took office. Approximately 65% of Britons hold an unfavorable view of Sunak, while only about 25% view him favourably.
Sunak’s tenure has been marked by significant challenges, including economic instability, high inflation rates, and the aftermath of the controversial mini-budget under his predecessor, Liz Truss. Many voters blame the government and the Truss administration for the current economic difficulties, particularly the recent interest rate hikes and high mortgage costs.
In comparison, Labour leader Keir Starmer enjoys better, though not overwhelmingly positive, ratings. His net approval is around -6.6%, with a substantial lead over Sunak in preferred Prime Minister polls
These factors, combined with Labour’s strong polling numbers and the rise of other parties like Reform UK, indicate a tough road ahead for Sunak and the Conservatives in the upcoming general election
Keir Starmer’s leadership approval ratings have experienced significant challenges. As of late June 2024, his net approval rating stands at -29%, comparable to the low ratings of his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn at the same point in their respective tenures
Despite his efforts to rebrand the Labour Party and distance it from Corbyn’s leadership, Starmer has struggled to garner widespread support. Recent polls indicate that only 32% of respondents believe he would be a competent prime minister, with 35% doubting his competence
Starmer’s ratings on key issues like public service improvement are relatively positive compared to his overall approval. However, his perceived lack of sound judgment and capability as a leader has led to mixed opinions among the public.
Moreover, Starmer’s approval ratings are impacted by internal party dynamics and his handling of significant by-elections and local government elections.
Overall, while Starmer maintains some support within Labour and among the public for specific policies, his overall approval ratings reflect substantial dissatisfaction, indicating room for improvement if he aims to lead Labour to a majority in the next general election.
Gaza War
The ongoing conflict in Gaza has had several effects on the political landscape in the UK, particularly as the country approaches its general election. Here are some key impacts:
1. Foreign Policy and Leadership Perception:
– The Gaza war has heightened public scrutiny of the UK government’s foreign policy, especially its stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has faced criticism for his handling of the situation, which may affect voter confidence in his leadership and foreign policy competencies.
2. Community Relations and Domestic Policy:
– The conflict has intensified debates around domestic policies related to community cohesion and anti-racism. The UK’s diverse population includes significant Muslim and Jewish communities, and the government’s response to the Gaza conflict can influence its standing with these groups. This has led to increased activism and protests, which could impact voter turnout and preferences.
3. Party Positions and Campaign Strategies:
– Political parties have had to clarify their positions on the Gaza conflict. Labour leader Keir Starmer has faced pressure to adopt a more defined stance, balancing his party’s traditional support for Palestinian rights with broader geopolitical considerations. This balancing act is crucial for maintaining party unity and appealing to a broad voter base
4. Humanitarian Concerns and Public Opinion:
– The humanitarian crisis resulting from the conflict has shifted public opinion, with many voters expressing concerns over civilian casualties and humanitarian aid. Parties that are perceived as advocating for peace and humanitarian aid may gain favor among voters who prioritize these issues.
Overall, the Gaza conflict has added a complex layer to the UK’s electoral dynamics, influencing voter perceptions of leadership, foreign policy, and domestic cohesion.
Just under a week more to go. The polling will be held on fourth of July and the results start coming at about midnight. Media is predicting a major wave towards Labour, but on ground the reality may be different. we will only know on Friday morning 5th of July 2024
