Gold prices fell to one-year low last week but today at one-month high

Gold and silver prices are moderately up in early U.S. trading Tuesday, on some short covering in the futures market and perceived value buying in the cash market. Both metals’ near-term technical postures have also improved just a bit recently. Still, gains in the metals are likely to be capped at present as trader and investor risk appetite remains robust, as evidenced by U.S. stock indexes that have hit record highs this week. The U.S. dollar index has pulled back from its recent five-month high, which is also somewhat encouraging for the metals bulls. June gold futures were last up $10.00 at $1,738.80 and May Comex silver was last up $0.28 at $25.06 an ounce.

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly down and European shares mostly up. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins, following recent good gains that pushed the Dow and S&P 500 indexes to record highs Monday. The general, over-riding theme in the marketplace at present is one of upbeat trader and investor attitudes, on ideas global economies will rebound strongly the second half of this year as Covid-19 gets tamped down. At least for now, worries about new waves of the pandemic, huge government spending programs producing problematic inflation, and a potentially over-inflated stock market are being brushed aside.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $59.70 a barrel, after getting hammered lower Monday due to energy demand worries. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.707%.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism report, and International Monetary Fund forecasts.

Technically, the June gold futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, more price gains in the near term would confirm a bullish double-bottom reversal pattern that would be one chart clue that a market bottom is in place. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in April futures above solid resistance at $1,756.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the March low of $1,676.20. First resistance is seen at $1,740.00 and then at $1,750.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,728.20 and then at Monday’s low of $1,721.60. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0

May silver futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $26.00 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $25.255 and then at $25.50. Next support is seen at Monday’s low of $24.66 and then at $24.27. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.5.