Protest call during SCO by PTI unwise – Why ?

By Dr Ashraf Chohan
Chariman PMLN UK

A call for strike by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit could have several negative repercussions on Pakistan’s economy, particularly due to the timing and the geopolitical significance of the event. Here’s why such a strike could be disastrous for the economy:

1. Disruption of International Relations and Trade Opportunities:

   •   The SCO summit is a major diplomatic and economic event, bringing together key regional powers like China, Russia, India, and Central Asian countries. It provides a platform for Pakistan to engage in discussions on trade, investment, and regional cooperation.
   •   A strike during this event could disrupt Pakistan’s participation, sending negative signals to potential investors and trading partners. It could damage Pakistan’s image as a stable and reliable country for trade and foreign investment, especially when the government is trying to promote economic cooperation through initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

2. Loss of Investor Confidence:

   •   Political instability, reflected through strikes and protests, often leads to a loss of confidence among both domestic and international investors. Investors prefer stable environments where they can predict market and political conditions. A strike called during such a high-profile event would highlight internal political discord, making Pakistan seem risky for investment.
   •   With Pakistan already facing economic challenges like inflation, a high debt burden, and a balance of payments crisis, the timing of political unrest could exacerbate these issues by scaring away foreign direct investment (FDI) and delaying economic deals.

3. Negative Impact on Economic Activities:

   •   Strikes can bring economic activities to a halt, affecting businesses, transport, logistics, and daily operations. Pakistan’s economy, particularly its key cities like Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad, heavily depends on the continuous flow of goods and services.
   •   Disruptions during the SCO summit, where major discussions on trade and economic cooperation are happening, could delay important economic engagements and deals, worsening the economic situation.

4. Diplomatic Fallout:

   •   The SCO is an important platform for Pakistan’s diplomatic engagement with powerful neighbors like China and Russia. If Pakistan is perceived as unstable or unable to manage its internal political affairs during such a critical event, it could lead to diplomatic strain with member countries. This could, in turn, jeopardize strategic projects, particularly with China, which is Pakistan’s key ally and economic partner.
   •   A strike during the summit could also diminish Pakistan’s role as a constructive regional player, reducing its influence in the organization.

5. Damage to Domestic and Global Perception:

   •   Pakistan is trying to rebuild its global image as a country open to business, particularly after periods of political and economic instability. Hosting or participating in events like the SCO summit is crucial for projecting a positive image of the country.
   •   A strike during this time would reinforce negative perceptions of instability, making it harder for Pakistan to attract international attention for its economic reforms or new business opportunities.

6. Impact on Foreign Aid and Assistance:

   •   International financial institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and other bilateral donors closely monitor political and economic stability in countries they support. Strikes, protests, and civil unrest can slow down economic reforms, leading to delays in financial assistance or stricter conditions for aid.
   •   With Pakistan already negotiating with these institutions for debt relief and further financial support, strikes and instability can undermine the government’s economic management and affect future aid packages.

7. Distraction from Long-Term Economic Goals:

   •   The government’s focus during the SCO summit would ideally be on long-term goals, such as fostering international partnerships, securing trade deals, and enhancing economic cooperation with neighboring countries. A strike could divert attention from these critical objectives and put the focus back on internal political disputes.
   •   This could delay important economic agreements or create the perception that Pakistan is unable to focus on broader regional cooperation due to its internal struggles.

8. Undermining Regional Integration Efforts:

   •   One of the key goals of the SCO is regional integration, which involves enhancing connectivity, trade, and economic cooperation among member states. For Pakistan, this is an opportunity to boost exports, attract foreign investments, and integrate its economy with those of Central Asia, Russia, and China.
   •   A strike during this time could undermine these efforts by projecting Pakistan as a country more focused on domestic political conflicts than on regional economic growth, making it harder for Pakistan to gain benefits from regional integration efforts.

Conclusion:

A strike by PTI in the middle of the SCO summit could have far-reaching consequences for Pakistan’s economy. It would not only disrupt domestic economic activity but also damage Pakistan’s international image, undermine investor confidence, and strain diplomatic relations. Given the importance of the SCO as a platform for economic and geopolitical cooperation, such a disruption could delay crucial economic opportunities and worsen Pakistan’s already fragile economic situation. Therefore, political stability and unity during such critical events are essential for safeguarding and advancing Pakistan’s economic interests.