Monsoon in Pakistan to start early with 5% more rainfall: NDMA warns

The upcoming monsoon season is expected to begin earlier than usual and bring heavier rainfall, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) informed the Senate Standing Committee on Climate Change during a briefing on Wednesday.

During the committee’s visit to NDMA headquarters, NDMA Chairman Lt Gen Inam Haider Malik warned that the monsoon may begin around June 26–27, roughly three to four days ahead of its typical onset. Rainfall across the country is likely to exceed normal levels by up to 5%, with northeastern Punjab bracing for a 50% increase.

Later, a Senate Standing Committee meeting was chaired by Senator Sherry Rehman, who expressed concern over extreme weather patterns and their long-term implications. The NDMA chief briefed the members on key monsoon and temperature forecasts based on 30 years of climate data.

“Punjab typically receives 344mm of rainfall during the monsoon. This year, it may receive around 388mm,” he said. Cities like Gujranwala, Lahore, Sialkot, and Narowal are projected to receive up to 380mm of rain. Similarly, rainfall in KP is expected to rise from the usual 243mm to nearly 300mm, with southern KP receiving normal or more than normal rainfall. Southern Punjab is also expected to see an increase.

However, northern KP and Balochistan are expected to receive below-normal rainfall, with temperatures likely to be higher than average. Azad Kashmir will also receive more rain, the NDMA chairman briefed. 

In Punjab, there will be a difference of 2-3 degrees in the temperature. In Sindh, temperatures are forecast to rise by 2.5°C above normal, while south Punjab and Sindh may experience a 4–5°C increase, potentially intensifying heatwave conditions.